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Noninvasive models to predict liver cirrhosis in patients with chronic hepatitis B.

Kim, BK; Kim, SA; Park, YN; Cheong, JY; Kim, HS; Park, JY; Cho, SW; Han, KH; Chon, CY; Moon, YM; Ahn, SH
Liver international : official journal of the International Association for the Study of the Liver, 27(7):969-976, 2007
Journal Title
Liver international : official journal of the International Association for the Study of the Liver
OBJECTIVES: Few noninvasive models of chronic hepatitis B (CHB) to predict liver cirrhosis have been studied. The aim of the current study is to investigate the diagnostic accuracy of two simple novel models of spleen-platelet ratio index (SPRI) and age-spleen-platelet ratio index (ASPRI) in patients with CHB.

PATIENTS AND METHODS: A total of 346 consecutive treatment-naïve patients with CHB were retrospectively studied. The aspartate to alanine aminotransferase ratio (AAR), age-platelet index (API), aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index (APRI), SPRI, and ASPRI were compared with liver histology.

RESULTS: AAR, APRI, SPRI, API, and ASPRI correlated significantly to fibrosis stage (all P12, the presence of cirrhosis could be correctly identified with a high accuracy (96.3% positive predictive value) in 35 (10.1%) of 346 patients. Similarly, using a cutoff of <5, the presence of cirrhosis could be totally excluded with 100% of negative predictive value in 120 (34.7%) of 346 patients.

CONCLUSION: ASPRI was accurate in predicting cirrhosis and screening with ASPRI has the potential to reduce the number of liver biopsies in CHB patients.
MeSH terms
AdultAge FactorsAgedAlanine Transaminase/blood*Aspartate Aminotransferases/blood*BiopsyClinical Enzyme Tests*Disease ProgressionFemaleHepatitis B, Chronic/bloodHepatitis B, Chronic/complications*Hepatitis B, Chronic/pathologyHumansLiver Cirrhosis/bloodLiver Cirrhosis/diagnosis*Liver Cirrhosis/pathologyLiver Cirrhosis/virologyLogistic ModelsMaleMiddle AgedModels, Biological*Platelet CountPredictive Value of TestsPrognosisROC CurveRetrospective StudiesSeverity of Illness IndexSpleen/pathology*
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Journal Papers > School of Medicine / Graduate School of Medicine > Gastroenterology
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정, 재연조, 성원
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