Validation of risk assessment models for predicting the incidence of breast cancer in korean women.

Abstract

PURPOSE: The Gail model is one of the most widely used tools to assess the risk

of breast cancer. However, it is known to overestimate breast cancer risk for

Asian women. Here, we validate the Gail model and the Korean model using Korean

data, and subsequently update and revalidate the Korean model using recent data.

METHODS: We validated the modified Gail model (model 2), Asian American Gail

model, and a previous Korean model using screening patient data collected between

January 1999 and July 2004. The occurrence of breast cancer was confirmed by

matching the resident registration number with data from the Korean Breast Cancer

Registration Program. The expected-to-observed (E/O) ratio was used to validate

the reliability of the program, and receiver operating characteristics curve

analysis was used to evaluate the program's discriminatory power. There has been

a rapid increase in the incidence of breast cancer in Korea, and we updated and

revalidated the Korean model using incidence and mortality rate data from recent

years. RESULTS: Among 40,229 patients who were included in the validation, 161

patients were confirmed to have developed breast cancer within 5 years of

screening. The E/O ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were 2.46 (2.10-2.87)

for the modified Gail model and 1.29 (1.11-1.51) for the Asian American Gail

model. The E/O ratio and 95% CI for the Korean model was 0.50 (0.43-0.59). For

the updated Korean model, the E/O ratio and 95% CI were 0.85 (0.73-1.00). In the

discriminatory power, the area under curve and 95% CI of the modified Gail model,

Asian American Gail model, Korean model and updated Korean model were 0.547

(0.500-0.594), 0.543 (0.495-0.590), 0.509 (0.463-0.556), and 0.558 (0.511-0.605),

respectively. CONCLUSION: The updated Korean model shows a better performance

than the other three models. It is hoped that this study can provide the basis

for a clinical risk assessment program and a future prospective study of breast

cancer prevention.