Validation of quantitative prognostic prediction using ADV score for resection of hepatocellular carcinoma: A Korea–Japan collaborative study with 9200 patients

Abstract

Background: A score derived from the concentrations of α-fetoprotein (AFP) and des-γ-carboxy prothrombin (DCP) and tumor volume (TV), called ADV score, has been shown to be prognostic of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence following hepatic resection (HR) or liver transplantation. Methods: This multicenter, multinational validation study included 9200 patients who underwent HR from 2010 to 2017 at 10 Korean and 73 Japanese centers, and were followed up until 2020. Results: AFP, DCP, and TV showed weak correlations (ρ ≤.463, r ≤.189, p <.001). Disease-free survival (DFS), overall survival (OS), and post-recurrence survival rates were dependent on 1.0 log and 2.0 log intervals of ADV scores (p <.001). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis showed that ADV score cutoffs of 5.0 log for DFS and OS yielded the areas under the curve ≥.577, with both being significantly prognostic of tumor recurrence and patient mortality at 3 years. ADV score cutoffs of ADV 4.0 log and 8.0 log, derived through K-adaptive partitioning method, showed higher prognostic contrasts in DFS and OS. ROC curve analysis showed that an ADV score cutoff of 4.2 log was suggestive of microvascular invasion, with both microvascular invasion and an ADV score cutoff of 4.2 log showing similar DFS rates. Conclusions: This international validation study demonstrated that ADV score is an integrated surrogate biomarker for post-resection prognosis of HCC. Prognostic prediction using ADV score can provide reliable information that can assist in planning treatment of patients with different stages of HCC and guide individualized post-resection follow-up based on the relative risk of HCC recurrence.