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Development of Risk Prediction Model for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Progression of Indeterminate Nodules in Hepatitis B Virus-Related Cirrhotic Liver

DC Field Value Language
dc.contributor.authorCho, HJ-
dc.contributor.authorKim, B-
dc.contributor.authorLee, JD-
dc.contributor.authorKang, DR-
dc.contributor.authorKim, JK-
dc.contributor.authorLee, JH-
dc.contributor.authorShin, SJ-
dc.contributor.authorLee, KM-
dc.contributor.authorYoo, BM-
dc.contributor.authorLee, KJ-
dc.contributor.authorKim, SS-
dc.contributor.authorCheong, JY-
dc.contributor.authorCho, SW-
dc.date.accessioned2018-07-27T00:51:56Z-
dc.date.available2018-07-27T00:51:56Z-
dc.date.issued2017-
dc.identifier.issn0002-9270-
dc.identifier.urihttp://repository.ajou.ac.kr/handle/201003/15558-
dc.description.abstractOBJECTIVES: This study was performed to evaluate long-term outcome of indeterminate nodules detected on cirrhotic liver and to develop risk prediction model for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) progression of indeterminate nodules on hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related cirrhotic liver.
METHODS: Indeterminate nodules up to 2 cm with uncertain malignant potential detected on computed tomography of cirrhotic liver during HCC surveillance were analyzed retrospectively. HCC risk prediction model of indeterminate nodules in HBV-related cirrhotic liver was deduced based on result of Cox regression analysis.
RESULTS: A total of 494 indeterminate nodules were included. Independent risk factors of HCC progression were old age, arterial enhancement, large nodule size, low serum albumin level, high serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) level, and prior HCC history in all included subjects. In subjects with chronic hepatitis B, old age (year: hazard ratio (HR)=1.06: P<0.001), arterial enhancement (HR=2.62: P=0.005), large nodule size (>1 cm: HR=7.34: P<0.001), low serum albumin level (/=100 ng/ml: HR=6.04: P=0.006), prior HCC history (HR=4.24: P=0.001), and baseline hepatitis B e antigen positivity (HR=2.31: P=0.007) were associated with HCC progression. We developed a simple risk prediction model using these risk factors and identified patients at low, intermediate, and high risk for HCC: 5-year cumulative incidences were 1%, 14.5%, and 63.1%, respectively. The developed risk score model showed good performance with area under the curve at 0.886 at 3 years, and 0.920 at 5 years in leave-one-out cross-validation.
CONCLUSIONS: We developed a useful and accurate risk score model for predicting HCC progression of indeterminate nodules detected on HBV-related cirrhotic liver.
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dc.language.isoen-
dc.subject.MESHAdult-
dc.subject.MESHAge Factors-
dc.subject.MESHAged-
dc.subject.MESHAged, 80 and over-
dc.subject.MESHCarcinoma, Hepatocellular-
dc.subject.MESHDisease Progression-
dc.subject.MESHFemale-
dc.subject.MESHHepatitis B, Chronic-
dc.subject.MESHHumans-
dc.subject.MESHHypoalbuminemia-
dc.subject.MESHIncidence-
dc.subject.MESHLiver-
dc.subject.MESHLiver Cirrhosis-
dc.subject.MESHLiver Neoplasms-
dc.subject.MESHMale-
dc.subject.MESHMiddle Aged-
dc.subject.MESHProportional Hazards Models-
dc.subject.MESHRepublic of Korea-
dc.subject.MESHRetrospective Studies-
dc.subject.MESHRisk Assessment-
dc.subject.MESHRisk Factors-
dc.subject.MESHTomography, X-Ray Computed-
dc.subject.MESHYoung Adult-
dc.subject.MESHalpha-Fetoproteins-
dc.titleDevelopment of Risk Prediction Model for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Progression of Indeterminate Nodules in Hepatitis B Virus-Related Cirrhotic Liver-
dc.typeArticle-
dc.identifier.pmid27779194-
dc.contributor.affiliatedAuthor조, 효정-
dc.contributor.affiliatedAuthor김, 보현-
dc.contributor.affiliatedAuthor강, 대용-
dc.contributor.affiliatedAuthor김, 재근-
dc.contributor.affiliatedAuthor이, 제희-
dc.contributor.affiliatedAuthor신, 성재-
dc.contributor.affiliatedAuthor이, 기명-
dc.contributor.affiliatedAuthor유, 병무-
dc.contributor.affiliatedAuthor이, 광재-
dc.contributor.affiliatedAuthor김, 순선-
dc.contributor.affiliatedAuthor정, 재연-
dc.contributor.affiliatedAuthor조, 성원-
dc.type.localJournal Papers-
dc.identifier.doi10.1038/ajg.2016.480-
dc.citation.titleThe American journal of gastroenterology-
dc.citation.volume112-
dc.citation.number3-
dc.citation.date2017-
dc.citation.startPage460-
dc.citation.endPage470-
dc.identifier.bibliographicCitationThe American journal of gastroenterology, 112(3). : 460-470, 2017-
dc.embargo.liftdate9999-12-31-
dc.embargo.terms9999-12-31-
dc.identifier.eissn1572-0241-
dc.relation.journalidJ000029270-
Appears in Collections:
Journal Papers > School of Medicine / Graduate School of Medicine > Gastroenterology
Journal Papers > School of Medicine / Graduate School of Medicine > Radiology
Journal Papers > School of Medicine / Graduate School of Medicine > Medical Humanities & Social Medicine
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