Predictive Factors for Nonsentinel Lymph Node Metastasis in Patients With Positive Sentinel Lymph Nodes After Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy: Nomogram for Predicting Nonsentinel Lymph Node Metastasis

Abstract

INTRODUCTION: Axillary lymph node (ALN) status is an important prognostic factor for breast cancer patients. With increasing numbers of patients undergoing neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC), issues concerning sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) after NAC have emerged. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We analyzed the clinicopathologic features and developed a nomogram to predict the possibility of nonsentinel lymph node (NSLN) metastases in patients with positive SLNs after NAC. A retrospective medical record review was performed of 140 patients who had had clinically positive ALNs at presentation, had a positive SLN after NAC on subsequent SLNB, and undergone axillary lymph node dissection (ALND) from 2008 to 2014. RESULTS: On multivariate stepwise logistic regression analysis, pathologic T stage, lymphovascular invasion, SLN metastasis size, and number of positive SLN metastases were independent predictors for NSLN metastases (P < .05). The NAC nomogram was based on these 4 variables. A receiver operating characteristic curve was plotted, and the area under the curve (AUC) was 0.791 for the NAC nomogram. In the internal validation of performance, the AUCs for the training and test sets were 0.801 and 0.760, respectively. The nomogram was validated in an external patient cohort, with an AUC of 0.705. CONCLUSION: The Samsung Medical Center NAC nomogram was developed to predict the likelihood of additional positive NSLNs. The Samsung Medical Center NAC nomogram could provide information to surgeons regarding whether to perform additional ALND when the permanent biopsy revealed positive findings, although the intraoperative SLNB findings were negative.